By exploiting students' response logs, SCM aims to predict their exercise

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the "Napkin graph", a causal structure that encapsulates patterns of M-bias, instrumental variables, and the classical back-door and front-door models within a single graphical framework, yet requires a nonstandard identification strategy: the average treatment effect is expressed as a ratio of two g-formulas. We develop novel estimators for this functional, including doubly robust one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators that remain asymptotically linear when nuisance functions are estimated at slower-than-parametric rates using machine learning. We also show how a generalized independence restriction encoded by the Napkin graph, known as a Verma constraint, can be exploited to improve efficiency, illustrating more generally how such constraints in hidden variable DAGs can inform semiparametric inference. The proposed methods are validated through simulations and applied to the Finnish Life Course study to estimate the effect of educational attainment on income. An accompanying R package, napkincausal, implements all proposed procedures.

Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are often available only at coarse spatial resolution, limiting their applicability in local-scale environmental analysis and decision-making. Spatial downscaling methods aim to transform the coarse satellite data into high-resolution fields. In this work, two widely used deep learning architectures, the super-resolution deep residual network (SRDRN) and the encoder-decoder-based UNet, are considered for spatial downscaling of tropospheric ozone. Both methods are extended with a lightweight temporal module, which encodes observation time using either sinusoidal or radial basis function (RBF) encoding, and fuses the temporal features with the spatial representations in the networks. The proposed time-aware extensions are evaluated against their baseline counterparts in a case study on ozone downscaling over Italy. The results suggest that, while only slightly increasing computational complexity, the temporal modules significantly improve downscaling performance and convergence speed.

The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference.

Context: Modern Systems of Systems (SoSs) increasingly operate in dynamic environments (e.g., smart cities, autonomous vehicles) where runtime composition -- the on-the-fly discovery, integration, and coordination of constituent systems (CSs)--is crucial for adaptability. Despite growing interest, the literature lacks a cohesive synthesis of runtime composition in dynamic SoSs. Objective: This study synthesizes research on runtime composition in dynamic SoSs and identifies core challenges, solution strategies, supporting tools, and evaluation methods. Methods: We conducted a Systematic Literature Review (SLR), screening 1,774 studies published between 2019 and 2024 and selecting 80 primary studies for thematic analysis (TA). Results: Challenges fall into four categories: modeling and analysis, resilient operations, system orchestration, and heterogeneity of CSs. Solutions span seven areas: co-simulation and digital twins, semantic ontologies, integration frameworks, adaptive architectures, middleware, formal methods, and AI-driven resilience. Service-oriented frameworks for composition and integration dominate tooling, while simulation platforms support evaluation. Interoperability across tools, limited cross-toolchain workflows, and the absence of standardized benchmarks remain key gaps. Evaluation approaches include simulation-based, implementation-driven, and human-centered studies, which have been applied in domains such as smart cities, healthcare, defense, and industrial automation. Conclusions: The synthesis reveals tensions, including autonomy versus coordination, the modeling-reality gap, and socio-technical integration. It calls for standardized evaluation metrics, scalable decentralized architectures, and cross-domain frameworks. The analysis aims to guide researchers and practitioners in developing and implementing dynamically composable SoSs.

By exploiting students' response logs, SCM aims to predict their exercise