By exploiting students' response logs, SCM aims to predict their exercise

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the "Napkin graph", a causal structure that encapsulates patterns of M-bias, instrumental variables, and the classical back-door and front-door models within a single graphical framework, yet requires a nonstandard identification strategy: the average treatment effect is expressed as a ratio of two g-formulas. We develop novel estimators for this functional, including doubly robust one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators that remain asymptotically linear when nuisance functions are estimated at slower-than-parametric rates using machine learning. We also show how a generalized independence restriction encoded by the Napkin graph, known as a Verma constraint, can be exploited to improve efficiency, illustrating more generally how such constraints in hidden variable DAGs can inform semiparametric inference. The proposed methods are validated through simulations and applied to the Finnish Life Course study to estimate the effect of educational attainment on income. An accompanying R package, napkincausal, implements all proposed procedures.

Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are often available only at coarse spatial resolution, limiting their applicability in local-scale environmental analysis and decision-making. Spatial downscaling methods aim to transform the coarse satellite data into high-resolution fields. In this work, two widely used deep learning architectures, the super-resolution deep residual network (SRDRN) and the encoder-decoder-based UNet, are considered for spatial downscaling of tropospheric ozone. Both methods are extended with a lightweight temporal module, which encodes observation time using either sinusoidal or radial basis function (RBF) encoding, and fuses the temporal features with the spatial representations in the networks. The proposed time-aware extensions are evaluated against their baseline counterparts in a case study on ozone downscaling over Italy. The results suggest that, while only slightly increasing computational complexity, the temporal modules significantly improve downscaling performance and convergence speed.

The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference.

By exploiting students' response logs, SCM aims to predict their exercise

Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (GCRL) holds great promise for domains such as autonomous navigation and locomotion, where collecting interactive data is costly and unsafe. However, it remains challenging in practice due to the need to learn from datasets with limited coverage of the state-action space and to generalize across long-horizon tasks. To improve on these challenges, we propose a \emph{Physics-informed (Pi)} regularized loss for value learning, derived from the Eikonal Partial Differential Equation (PDE) and which induces a geometric inductive bias in the learned value function. Unlike generic gradient penalties that are primarily used to stabilize training, our formulation is grounded in continuous-time optimal control and encourages value functions to align with cost-to-go structures. The proposed regularizer is broadly compatible with temporal-difference-based value learning and can be integrated into existing Offline GCRL algorithms. When combined with Hierarchical Implicit Q-Learning (HIQL), the resulting method, Eikonal-regularized HIQL (Eik-HIQL), yields significant improvements in both performance and generalization, with pronounced gains in stitching regimes and large-scale navigation tasks.